Inverse optimal control can be used to characterize behavior in sequential decision-making tasks.

End-to-End (E2E) planning has become a powerful paradigm for autonomous driving, yet current systems remain fundamentally uncertainty-blind. They assume perception outputs are fully reliable, even in ambiguous or poorly observed scenes, leaving the planner without an explicit measure of uncertainty. To address this limitation, we propose a camera-only E2E framework that estimates aleatoric uncertainty directly in BEV space and incorporates it into planning. Our method produces a dense, uncertainty-aware drivability map that captures both semantic structure and geometric layout at pixel-level resolution. To further promote safe and rule-compliant behavior, we introduce a lane-following regularization that encodes lane structure and traffic norms. This prior stabilizes trajectory planning under normal conditions while preserving the flexibility needed for maneuvers such as overtaking or lane changes. Together, these components enable robust and interpretable trajectory planning, even under challenging uncertainty conditions. Evaluated on the NAVSIM benchmark, our method achieves state-of-the-art performance, delivering substantial gains on both the challenging NAVHARD and NAVSAFE subsets. These results demonstrate that our principled aleatoric uncertainty modeling combined with driving priors significantly advances the safety and reliability of camera-only E2E autonomous driving.

Inverse optimal control can be used to characterize behavior in sequential decision-making tasks.

Graphical user interface (GUI) agents have shown promise in automating mobile tasks but still struggle with input redundancy and decision ambiguity. In this paper, we present \textbf{RecAgent}, an uncertainty-aware agent that addresses these issues through adaptive perception. We distinguish two types of uncertainty in GUI navigation: (1) perceptual uncertainty, caused by input redundancy and noise from comprehensive screen information, and (2) decision uncertainty, arising from ambiguous tasks and complex reasoning. To reduce perceptual uncertainty, RecAgent employs a component recommendation mechanism that identifies and focuses on the most relevant UI elements. For decision uncertainty, it uses an interactive module to request user feedback in ambiguous situations, enabling intent-aware decisions. These components are integrated into a unified framework that proactively reduces input complexity and reacts to high-uncertainty cases via human-in-the-loop refinement. Additionally, we propose a dataset called \textbf{ComplexAction} to evaluate the success rate of GUI agents in executing specified single-step actions within complex scenarios. Extensive experiments validate the effectiveness of our approach. The dataset and code will be available at https://github.com/Fanye12/RecAgent.

Accurate localization using visual information is a critical yet challenging task, especially in urban environments where nearby buildings and construction sites significantly degrade GNSS (Global Navigation Satellite System) signal quality. This issue underscores the importance of visual localization techniques in scenarios where GNSS signals are unreliable. This paper proposes U-ViLAR, a novel uncertainty-aware visual localization framework designed to address these challenges while enabling adaptive localization using high-definition (HD) maps or navigation maps. Specifically, our method first extracts features from the input visual data and maps them into Bird's-Eye-View (BEV) space to enhance spatial consistency with the map input. Subsequently, we introduce: a) Perceptual Uncertainty-guided Association, which mitigates errors caused by perception uncertainty, and b) Localization Uncertainty-guided Registration, which reduces errors introduced by localization uncertainty. By effectively balancing the coarse-grained large-scale localization capability of association with the fine-grained precise localization capability of registration, our approach achieves robust and accurate localization. Experimental results demonstrate that our method achieves state-of-the-art performance across multiple localization tasks. Furthermore, our model has undergone rigorous testing on large-scale autonomous driving fleets and has demonstrated stable performance in various challenging urban scenarios.

This work presents a first evaluation of two state-of-the-art Large Reasoning Models (LRMs), OpenAI's o3-mini and DeepSeek R1, on analogical reasoning, focusing on well-established nonverbal human IQ tests based on Raven's progressive matrices. We benchmark with the I-RAVEN dataset and its more difficult extension, I-RAVEN-X, which tests the ability to generalize to longer reasoning rules and ranges of the attribute values. To assess the influence of visual uncertainties on these nonverbal analogical reasoning tests, we extend the I-RAVEN-X dataset, which otherwise assumes an oracle perception. We adopt a two-fold strategy to simulate this imperfect visual perception: 1) we introduce confounding attributes which, being sampled at random, do not contribute to the prediction of the correct answer of the puzzles and 2) smoothen the distributions of the input attributes' values. We observe a sharp decline in OpenAI's o3-mini task accuracy, dropping from 86.6% on the original I-RAVEN to just 17.0% -- approaching random chance -- on the more challenging I-RAVEN-X, which increases input length and range and emulates perceptual uncertainty. This drop occurred despite spending 3.4x more reasoning tokens. A similar trend is also observed for DeepSeek R1: from 80.6% to 23.2%. On the other hand, a neuro-symbolic probabilistic abductive model, ARLC, that achieves state-of-the-art performances on I-RAVEN, can robustly reason under all these out-of-distribution tests, maintaining strong accuracy with only a modest reduction from 98.6% to 88.0%. Our code is available at https://github.com/IBM/raven-large-language-models.

When navigating and interacting in challenging environments where sensory information is imperfect and incomplete, robots must make decisions that account for these shortcomings. We propose a novel method for quantifying and representing such perceptual uncertainty in 3D reconstruction through occupancy uncertainty estimation. We develop a framework to incorporate it into grasp selection for autonomous manipulation in underwater environments. Instead of treating each measurement equally when deciding which location to grasp from, we present a framework that propagates uncertainty inherent in the multi-view reconstruction process into the grasp selection. We evaluate our method with both simulated and the real world data, showing that by accounting for uncertainty, the grasp selection becomes robust against partial and noisy measurements. Code will be made available at https://onurbagoren.github.io/PUGS/

Robotic mapping with Bayesian Kernel Inference (BKI) has shown promise in creating semantic maps by effectively leveraging local spatial information. However, existing semantic mapping methods face challenges in constructing reliable maps in unstructured outdoor scenarios due to unreliable semantic predictions. To address this issue, we propose an evidential semantic mapping, which can enhance reliability in perceptually challenging off-road environments. We integrate Evidential Deep Learning into the semantic segmentation network to obtain the uncertainty estimate of semantic prediction. Subsequently, this semantic uncertainty is incorporated into an uncertainty-aware BKI, tailored to prioritize more confident semantic predictions when accumulating semantic information. By adaptively handling semantic uncertainties, the proposed framework constructs robust representations of the surroundings even in previously unseen environments. Comprehensive experiments across various off-road datasets demonstrate that our framework enhances accuracy and robustness, consistently outperforming existing methods in scenes with high perceptual uncertainties.

Inverse optimal control can be used to characterize behavior in sequential decision-making tasks. Most existing work, however, is limited to fully observable or linear systems, or requires the action signals to be known. Here, we introduce a probabilistic approach to inverse optimal control for partially observable stochastic non-linear systems with unobserved action signals, which unifies previous approaches to inverse optimal control with maximum causal entropy formulations. Using an explicit model of the noise characteristics of the sensory and motor systems of the agent in conjunction with local linearization techniques, we derive an approximate likelihood function for the model parameters, which can be computed within a single forward pass. We present quantitative evaluations on stochastic and partially observable versions of two classic control tasks and two human behavioral tasks. Importantly, we show that our method can disentangle perceptual factors and behavioral costs despite the fact that epistemic and pragmatic actions are intertwined in sequential decision-making under uncertainty, such as in active sensing and active learning. The proposed method has broad applicability, ranging from imitation learning to sensorimotor neuroscience.

One of the fundamental challenges in the prediction of dynamic agents is robustness. Usually, most predictions are deterministic estimates of future states which are over-confident and prone to error. Recently, few works have addressed capturing uncertainty during forecasting of future states. However, these probabilistic estimation methods fail to account for the upstream noise in perception data during tracking. Sensors always have noise and state estimation becomes even more difficult under adverse weather conditions and occlusion. Traditionally, Bayes filters have been used to fuse information from noisy sensors to update states with associated belief. But, they fail to address non-linearities and long-term predictions. Therefore, we propose an end-to-end estimator that can take noisy sensor measurements and make robust future state predictions with uncertainty bounds while simultaneously taking into consideration the upstream perceptual uncertainty. For the current research, we consider an encoder-decoder based deep ensemble network for capturing both perception and predictive uncertainty simultaneously. We compared the current model to other approximate Bayesian inference methods. Overall, deep ensembles provided more robust predictions and the consideration of upstream uncertainty further increased the estimation accuracy for the model.